Goodbye Dave

Our glorious leader has already stated he will not seek re-election in 2020, but when will he go?

In April last year, David Cameron said in an interview that, if returned as Prime Minister, he would not go on to fight a third election as leader of the Conservative Party – a news story that baffled and delighted in equal measure. Why would the incumbent Prime Minister leave so much speculation with only a few weeks before the country goes to the polls? The speculations and questions were as numerous as they were revealing.

  • He thought he had the election in the bag already, this is as deeply unsettling as it is patronising, believing that the electorate would vote him in regardless (interestingly, however, this is exactly what happened).
  • It was a smokescreen as in effect, calling a leadership election months or years  before one was required, to shift focus away from whatever else was happening elsewhere in the election.To my mind, I do not recall what else was going on at the time in the campaigns, once again, proving the effectiveness of this tactic.
  • Why introduce yourself to the public as a lame duck mere weeks before they decide to vote on your leadership?
  • When would he go?
  • Who would replace him?

These, and many more, were posed. Now, however, we can reveal when he will go*…

David Cameron will be replaced by the end of the year. This will be due to the In/Out Referendum. No matter it’s result, we can be fairly sure he will want out after June 23rd. My reasoning for this bold claim? Let’s have a look-see …

Cameron already made the Scottish Referendum result a test of his leadership. No one else did, though he may have been pressured, he stated he would resign if the Union were to break up and Scotland break away from the United Kingdom. Conversely, he has said the opposite on Europe, but it is unlikely he could save political face in the wake of a vote to leave.

So what if we stay? Well, as prefaced, Ol’ Dave has ruled out fighting a third election, so it would safe to assume that he would stand down on a high note, claiming to be the saviour of Britain, Europe and, quite possibly, the world! Also assuming a caretaker role while Boris and George, my money’s on Gove also throwing in a strong claim, to fight it out over leadership of the party.

But if he doesn’t take this moral high ground stance and decides to stay on in the wake of a Remain vote? Well, considering the split within the Conservative Party is around 55% to vote to Remain, of those that have so far declared, this leaves 45% firmly for leaving the Union. A sizeable number that could, theoretically, stage a coup against David Cameron’s leadership. A vote of no confidence could be used, and it would be foolish for opposition parties to pass up that gift.

But, as ever, we will see. I merely glance into the crystal ball of intrigue and work with the images it flashes me before shrouding itself once again in spin, speculation and subtlety…

*Disclaimer: no one really knows anything, not really…

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